Aside from "world events," Gibraltar's economic progress in 2008 will largely be determined by the decision of the European Court of First
Instance with regards to the Gibraltar and UK governments' appeals regarding Gibraltar's ability to continue to have a separate tax regime.
In the most likely event that the Court finds that Gibraltar's fiscal regime need not mirror that of any European region, the Gibraltar Government should be able to put in place an attractive system for international businesses to replace the tax exemptions legislation which had served us so well since 1967. The court decision should have already been handed down and is therefore imminent.
Quality Business
The auguries are certainly good. Even with the demise of the old tax regime Gibraltar has continued to attract quality business. Lloyds TSB Offshore Limited is set to start up an operation additional to Lloyds' existing presence and three major betting companies have joined Gibraltar's select list of operators: this year William Hill, Bet 365 and Betfred obtained their Gibraltar Government gaming licences. The prestigious international securities and brokerage firm Van der Moolen has just set up an office here. Both the Financial Services Commission and the Gibraltar Regulatory Authority report continuing interest from new players wanting to operate from our City.
The Gibraltar Stock Exchange is expected to open its doors at 55 Line Wall Road within the next 12 months.
Finance centre practitioners explain that Gibraltar's well established regulatory system and experienced professional infrastructure give us an edge over our nearest competitors despite the delay in the European Court ruling.
Communications wise, both Gibtel and Sapphire Network have made vast improvements in international bandwidth with greater resilience to meet demand. Legal and accountancy practices continue to expand with one major very well placed professional outfit reporting that partners saw Gibraltar's prospects for 2008 as particularly well favoured.
It is understood that the Chief Minister has told civil service mandarins to expect a major productivity overhaul of the public service to cope with the possibility of increased business. There have long been rumblings of discontent from both the Chamber of Commerce and the Federation of Small Business regarding the question of efficiency in the public sector although the general view is that its professionalism has greatly improved over recent years as its ranks have been supplemented by graduates and other professionally qualified people.
Decline In Values
Increased finance centre business could resuscitate Gibraltar's property market which has recently seen a decline in values after a decade of almost continuous growth. A continuation of price increases will certainly not be good news for people on average earnings who have effectively been excluded from home ownership by spiralling prices. The likelihood, however, is that demand will stabilise and prices will come down.
It is probable that Gibraltar airport will be able to count with a London Heathrow slot in 2008. This will enhance Gibraltar's attractiveness as a financial base.
Main Street shops have suffered from lack of parking facilities around town when compared to the mega stores in neighbouring parts of Spain. The closure of the Naval Grounds car parks pending the development of the Mid Town building will, unless mitigated, exacerbate the problem. Talk of the "credit crunch" and mortgage rate increases have according to Main Street retailers also dampened spending habits in recent months. Strategic reductions in import duty rates may be needed to keep Gibraltar's retail sector competitive.
It remains to be seen whether the Ocean Village commercial complex will compete with the more established shopping districts but, in any event, Ocean Village promises to be either a spectacular success or the opposite; commercial rent levels and expectations in this development will ensure that there can be no middle ground.
The hope in the business sector continues to be for more government consultation and better planning in the New Year. In turn Government circles say that they expect a degree more imagination and pro activity from the business class. Hopefully in 2008 both sides will meet each other's expectations!